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For the FIFA world cup, Paul the octopus has been predicting
the winner of each match with amazing success. It is rumored
that in a match between 2 teams A and B, Paul picks A with
the same probability as A's chances of winning.
Let's assume such rumors to be true and that in a match
between X and Y, X the stronger team has a probability of
4/5 of winning the game. What is the probability that Paul
will correctly pick the winner of the X-Y game?
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Answer Posted / manas
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