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For the FIFA world cup, Paul the octopus has been predicting
the winner of each match with amazing success. It is rumored
that in a match between 2 teams A and B, Paul picks A with
the same probability as A’s chances of winning.
Let’s assume such rumors to be true and that in a match
between Ghana and Bolivia, Ghana the stronger team has a
probability of 2/3 of winning the game. What is the
probability that Paul will correctly pick the winner of the
Ghana-Bolivia game?
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